The PC processor market has been stable for many years: the largest manufacturers, Intel and AMD, introduce new products every year that outperform the previous generation by 10-15%. However, in 2024, Qualcomm entered the race by presenting new ARM processors for Windows-based laptops. Essentially, Qualcomm is attempting to replicate Apple's success in transitioning from Intel chips to its own ARM processors.

Both AMD and Intel use x86 architecture in their products, with Intel releasing its first x86 chip nearly half a century ago. Until recently, all consumer PCs and laptops on the global market used Intel or AMD processors. Additionally, ARM architecture processors are successfully used in many mobile devices, computer peripherals, network devices, industrial controllers, and other equipment. ARM processors generally lag behind x86 chips in performance but consume significantly less energy, allowing devices based on them to operate without active cooling and to have longer battery life. ARM designs and licenses these processors but does not manufacture them.

The PC market situation changed in 2020 when Apple decided to switch to its processors based on ARM architecture. Apple M1 chips changed everything: laptops and computers based on them not only matched Intel and AMD chips in performance but also significantly outperformed them in many tasks while consuming much less energy. For example, the Apple MacBook Air with the M1 chip was completely silent due to the absence of fans, and its battery life reached 18 hours. Competing Windows laptops with traditional processors required active cooling and had half the battery life. The characteristics of the Apple M1 were also due to technological solutions: M1 was the world's first 5-nanometer process chip for computers and laptops.

Apple's Competitor

A full-fledged competitor to Apple's chips had to wait almost four years: at the end of April, Qualcomm, a leading smartphone chip manufacturer, introduced the Snapdragon X Elite. This new chip has 12 cores and runs at 4.2 GHz. According to independent reviewers, laptops based on these processors outperform many Intel solutions. Mobile PCs based on Qualcomm chips have already been introduced by Asus, Acer, Dell, HP, Lenovo, and Samsung.

Another strong point of the Snapdragon X Elite is its powerful built-in neural processor used in AI systems. AI is becoming an important part of modern processors—Microsoft also emphasizes this with its Copilot Plus PC concept. To meet the requirements of this new category of computers, laptops must have a processor with a dedicated neural chip capable of at least 40 trillion operations per second and a battery that lasts all day. Qualcomm's new processors meet these requirements: Microsoft likely focused on its partner's chip specifications. What can these new computers offer? For example, Microsoft Recall technology will record all user actions, allowing users to return to specific tasks later. Requests to the operating system can be made in natural language, and the AI will find the needed information among indexed user actions.

Microsoft aims to play a key role in the upcoming PC revolution. However, Windows OS developers face the challenging task of ensuring the functionality of numerous applications initially written for x86 processors on new ARM computers. The first steps in this direction have already been taken: the latest Windows 11 update, code-named 24H2, will include Prism technology—an emulator that allows traditional applications to run on new PCs.

Adaptation Period

Apple has already gone through this path during its transition to M-series processors: the Rosetta emulator allowed most old Mac applications to run on new devices with minimal performance loss. However, the number of programs for Windows OS far exceeds the software for macOS, so users may initially face difficulties running some applications on new computers.

For software to work correctly and quickly, developers need to release ARM versions of their applications. While this won't be a big problem for large software corporations with many developers, individual programmers may find it impossible, especially for free software that doesn't bring commercial benefits to its authors. Additionally, there may be potential issues with drivers for peripheral devices and components—they will also need updating.

Microsoft is interested in promoting the new Copilot Plus PC concept, partly because it has introduced a similar computer: the Surface Laptop, like other new devices, is based on the Qualcomm Snapdragon X Elite processor. During the presentation, the company stated that its new PC is 58% faster than the MacBook Air with the M3 chip. However, journalists later found that this performance difference was only observed in a specific set of software, and in some testing modes, the Apple laptop was faster despite lacking active cooling. The new device performed exceptionally well in the battery life test, lasting over 20 hours of video playback.

During a speech at the Computex 2024 conference, Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon stated that the launch of the Snapdragon X Elite processor is comparable in impact to the debut of Windows 95. The company's plans are ambitious—they promise that not only laptops but all form-factor computers will be released within the Copilot Plus PC concept. This can be seen as a plan to release more powerful chips for desktop PCs—Apple has long had such processors. Here, Qualcomm will find it even harder to compete with Intel and AMD: for desktop PCs, pure performance is crucial, and energy efficiency takes a back seat.

Licensing Dispute

In conquering the PC market, Qualcomm must overcome not only competitors but also, paradoxically, an ally in the form of ARM, which designs, develops, and licenses processors. ARM has legal claims against Qualcomm and the new X Elite chips. Two years ago, ARM and Qualcomm had a licensing dispute, tracing back to 2019. Then, Qualcomm bought the startup Nuvia, founded by former Apple engineers. The ARM-compatible processor core developed by the startup, which forms the basis of Qualcomm's new revolutionary X Elite chips, was initially licensed as a server solution. Now, ARM demands that Qualcomm "destroy and cease using Nuvia's developments." Analysts believe this dispute will likely be resolved through a new licensing agreement and won't hinder Qualcomm from capturing the traditional computer market.

AI technologies have dramatically changed our lives in less than a couple of years, threatening many professions. For AI assistants to work fully on computers, new processors with built-in neural chips will be needed. Additionally, software features require similar blocks in processors. This will push consumers to buy new laptops with better autonomy.

However, this process may take years, as companies will face many challenges in transitioning to the ARM era. The ARM Holding CEO stated that he plans to capture half of the Windows PC market within five years. This forecast seems overly optimistic. Nonetheless, AMD and Intel should be concerned, as the ARM threat is very real, at least in the laptop and mini-PC sector. If Qualcomm and ARM resolve their licensing disputes and Microsoft ensures smooth operation of many applications on new PCs, the popularity of mobile computers with new chips is expected to flourish in the next year or two.